UFC Lightweight Title Picture- McGregor, Poirier, Gaethje, Ferguson, Chandler
- Combat Sports Journal
- Oct 26, 2020
- 6 min read
After UFC 254, dominant champion, and arguably the pound for pound best, Khabib Nurmagomedov retired in a very emotion post fight interview. (You can view my article on Khabib's retirement here.) This however leaves a hole at the top with several contenders aiming for that championship title. Today for this article, I will feature my opinions on the lightweight title picture now that Khabib is no longer at the top.
First up, I will talk about a few changes to my rankings. To start, let me make the obvious observation when looking at my rankings. Conor McGregor is not on my rankings at all at lightweight. That is well, because he said he was retired. If you retire, why are you still on the rankings? If you are still active, then you should be on the rankings. You do not deserve to take up a spot on the rankings if you are retired. Just look at some of the other greats that have retired recently. Daniel Cormier was taken off the heavyweight rankings on the Monday after his retirement fight against Stipe Miocic. Henry Cejudo is no longer shown in the rankings list. Georges St. Pierre is not ranked either. Why then should a self-claimed retired Conor McGregor be ranked? Now that all being said, I do believe he is coming back, but in that time period where you claim you are retired, you should be taken out of the rankings. (I also believe Henry Cejudo will likely come back). I mean let's look at some of the facts here. Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier is all but official at this point for January. I'll talk more about this fight below. Anyways, continuing with my lightweight rankings report, Michael Chandler is also missing from my rankings, although the official UFC rankings shows the same. The former multiple time Bellator lightweight champion was the backup fighter for the UFC 254 main event in case Khabib or Justin Gaethje was unable to fight. Once he has his first fight in the UFC, based on the opponent, result, and performance, only then can Michael Chandler become ranked. We just don't know at this point where he fits in with UFC level competition.
Now to update my ranking changes post UFC 254. I actually move Justin Gaethje down a spot, (with no disrespect to Gaethje), simply due to me moving Dustin Poirier up a spot. Poirier had the better performance against Khabib, lasting over a full round linger than Gaethje, as well as almost getting that deep guillotine choke that Poirier had. Also, let's not forget that incredible 2018 main event victory that Poirier has over Gaethje. It's difficult to rank ahead of someone if you have a recent loss to someone lower. Obviously there are exceptions to this rule, but this is not one of those times. This of course moves Tony Ferguson down to the #3 spot, as Justin Gaethje of course has that win last time out over Tony Ferguson. So with these changes, my top 5 rankings at lightweight in the UFC now look like this:
(Also don't forget that I do not have Conor McGregor or Michael Chandler ranked. They are very much in the mix at the top as well.)
Now, who gets the next shot at the title? A lot of fans are calling for a lightweight tournament to determine the next champion. This is a great idea, but my expectations to see this are lower than seeing Ben Askren in a boxing fight. It's just not going to happen. What is going to happen at lightweight? Before I get into that, let me tell you what I'd like to see, then I'll talk about the most likely scenario. Personally, since we had an interim champion so recently (the UFC 254 main event was champion vs interim champion after all), I'd like to see the belt revert back to the interim champion, who then gets promoted to lightweight champ. The whole point of the interim championship is to determine the next best fighter while the champion is away. This should also translate into this person becomes the champion if the champion does not return. If it were up to me, it would be interim champion Justin Gaethje vs the next highest ranked fighter, which happens to be Dustin Poirier, which also happens to be a rematch of two very exciting stylistic fighters with huge names that would sell. With the big name the Dustin Poirier has, as well as Justin Gaethje, especially after taking part in one of the biggest fights ever on Saturday, that fight would sell huge. I would then have Conor McGregor fight the winner of that fight, which would build hype for Gaethje vs Poirier 2 by seeing who is next to fight McGregor, and obviously the huge hype for whatever would come next after that, whether it would be Gaethje vs McGregor which so many fans want to see, or the Poirier vs McGregor rematch which everyone is also very excited for. In the mean time, Tony Ferguson should match up against Michael Chandler. This fight would be a great first fight for Michael Chandler because Ferguson is a big name, highly ranked, and a tough night out for anyone. As for Tony Ferguson, this would be a great chance for him to get back on the winning track and build himself back up by beating the huge name that Michael Chandler brings to his UFC debut. Below, I will talk about the most likely and realistic scenario for the first lightweight title fight post UFC 254.
To summarize my ideal fights if I was running the UFC:
Interim champ Justin Gaethje vs Dustin Poirier for the new lightweight championship.
Winner of the fight above fights Conor McGregor.
Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chandler.
Charles Oliveira vs Beneil Dariush
Dan Hooker vs Diego Ferreira
Rafael Dos Anjos vs Islam Makhachev
Now, for the most likely scenario. I think realistically, the UFC will give the Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier rematch the championship treatment. I think one of the biggest hold ups for this fight to be made official is what weight it would be fought at. Initially they first fought at featherweight in 2014. They both now, obviously compete at lightweight, although McGregor has fought recently at welterweight, including his last fight against Donald Cerrone. While welterweight is interesting for this rematch as both fighters would be at their best by not having to cut weight, it just does not make any sense in terms of rankings and championship continuity to have that fight at welterweight. I'm fully expecting an announcement in the coming weeks that this fight will be made official, and made for the next lightweight championship of the world. There are just so many story lines into this fight; the common opponent in Khabib, Conor being the last lightweight champion before Khabib, Conor being such a big name bringing the sport to so many new fan, Dustin Poirier's near guillotine of Khabib, and of course this being a rematch and their performances since then. In case you don't remember, Conor McGregor defeated Dustin Poirier by knockout in the first round, actually within two minutes of their 2014 featherweight fight. Since then Poirier moved up to lightweight and went 10-2 and 1 no contest, including 6 stoppage wins. Also Poirier has won fights over some of the biggest names, including; Justin Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez, Anthony Pettis, Dan Hooker, and even former featherweight champ, Max Holloway. All of these incredible performances for Poirier since 2014 makes this rematch against McGregor all the more interesting. If you want some more proof of why I think McGregor vs Poirier will be for the next lightweight championship of the world, check out this Instagram post from the UFC. The caption on the post is "lightweight just became very interesting" with McGregor and Poirier featured in the first two pictures of the post, which also includes Tony Ferguson, Justin Gaethje, and Michael Chandler.
Please share and comment if you think McGregor vs Poirier 2 will determine the next champion, or let us know who you think will get the next lightweight title fight.
Curious what it looks like to get hit by Justin Gaethje? Check out this tweet.
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