Fight Picks- UFC Fight Island 6: Predictions and Odds

Combat Sports Journal
Oct 17, 2020
5 min read

Tonight we turn our attention to Fight Island as the UFC brings another event live tonight. UFC Fight Island 6: Ortega vs Korean Zombie is live tonight, with prelims starting at 4 PM eastern, main card at 7 PM. It's an earlier card than normal, likely to make way for the Lomachenko vs Lopez boxing title fight later. (I'll hopefully post an article about that fight later this afternoon.)

Here are my predictions for the UFC Fight Island event tonight, and the odds on my predictions coming true:

Main Card (7 PM Eastern)

Main Event:

The main event tonight is #2 against #4 featherweights in action in a bout that very likely will determine the next title challenger. #2 ranked Brian Ortega has not fought since I saw him fight in Toronto in a losing bout for the featherweight title against Max Holloway at UFC 231. For the weigh ins yesterday, Ortega shaved his head completely, and he has a lot of hair. Usually fighters shaving their head for weigh ins is an indication of doing anything they can struggling to make that last bit of the weight cut. Ortega stated later in an interview that it was not a tough weight cut, it was him donating the hair to a charity. Good on him of course for doing so. But who knows, maybe it was a tough weight cut also; I would not expect a fighter to admit to a tough cut the day before a possible title eliminator bout. If Ortega loses, I would not be shocked to hear him go back on those words and admit that it was a tough weight cut. It has been almost two years since Ortega competed.

On the other side of the main event tonight is the Korean Zombie, Chan Sung Jung. I've seen TKZ fight live in person twice, the first being the 7 second knockout of Mark Hominick in Toronto, and the fight of the year/KO of the year when he was knocked out by Yair Rodriguez in Denver at the UFC 25th anniversary show in 2018. Jung was winning that bout and just got caught with a crazy perfectly timed elbow by Rodriguez with just one second left in the fight. If it were not for that elbow, Jung would be 4-0 in main event fights since his three and a half year absence from MMA due to his mandatory military service for his country of South Korea. To go back even further, Jung's last six UFC fights, dating back to 2012 have all been main events. This includes a 2012 submission victory of Dustin Poirier.

(Photo taken by me at UFC 231: Holloway vs Ortega in Toronto, ON, December 2018.)

Now for my main event prediction:

I think the long time off will have Ortega rusty and slow, and Jung will use his superior striking. Ortega will try for takedowns to get into submission range, but Jung has good submission skills as well. I think on the ground Jung will be able to survive and get out of bad positions and be able to get back into striking range and dominate the fight from there. I have Chan Sung Jung winning by KO/TKO in the third round.

Current Odds:

Chan Sung Jung to win: -200

Chan Sung Jung by KO/TKO: +100

Chan Sung Jung in round 3: +800

Co-Main Event:

The co-main event is an interesting women's flyweight bout as former bantamweight, and former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade now meets in the middle to make her UFC flyweight debut. She'll be taking on former flyweight title challenger, Katlyn Chookagian. Andrade is currently ranked #2 at flyweight, while Chookagian is ranked #1 at flyweight. When Andrade first fought in the UFC, they only had the bantamweight division for women, brought on by the popularity of Ronda Rousey at the time. The second weight class the UFC brought in for women was strawweight, with Andrade choosing to move down the 20 pounds. Andrade ending up doing much better at the lower weight, going 4-2 at bantamweight, and going 7-3 at strawweight, including winning the belt. I think the weight cut was a big challenger for her, having a major impact on her cardio, whenever she didn't get an early KO/TKO victory. I think this move up to flyweight is the right move for her. As for Chookagian, she went 2-1 in her first three fights in the UFC at bantamweight before moving down to flyweight. Since then, she has gone 5-2 at flyweight, including a losing title challenge against Valentina Shevchenko.

Now for my prediction:

I think Andrade will be the stronger and faster fighter early on, but I still think Chookagian will have the cardio advantage, especially with her almost point fighting-like striking style. If Andrade is to get the victory, it will be early in the fight, probably from a strong counter shot as Chookagian is coming in. If Chookagian can avoid the big shots from Andrade, and use her eight inch height and four inch reach advantage, she will pick Andrade apart on the way to a decision. However, I do think Andrade will be able to catch and hurt Chookagian getting a second round TKO.

Current Odds:

Andrade to win: -155

Andrade by KO/TKO: +225

Andrade in round 2: +700

Modestas Bukauskas vs Jimmy Crute

Prediction: Crute by submission in round 1.

Current Odds:

Crute to win: -300

Crute by submission: +120

Crute in round 1: +175

Claudio Silva vs James Krause

Prediction: James Krause by decision

Current Odds:

Krause to win: -120

Krause by decision: +150

Thomas Almeida vs Jonathan Martinez

Both fighters are UFC bantamweight fighters making their UFC debut at featherweight tonight.

Prediction: Thomas Almeida by KO/TKO in round 2.

Current Odds:

Almeida to win: -150

Almeida by KO/TKO: +160

Almeida in round 2: +600

Prelims (5 PM Eastern)

Matuesz Gamrot vs Guram Kutateladze:

Gamrot is the former champion of KSW at both lightweight and featherweight. He is making his UFC debut tonight and is currently undefeated at 17-0. I'm sure he will become a big name to watch in the UFC going forward. Kutateladze was scheduled to fight for the Brave CF lightweight title in March before that event had to be scrapped as this was around the start of the Covid shutdowns and restrictions. He is also making his UFC debut tonight.

Prediction:

Gamrot by decision

Current Odds:

Gamrot to win: -290

Gamrot by decision: -125

Canadian Gillian Robertson vs Poliana Botelho

Prediction:

Robertson by submission in round 2

Current Odds:

Robertson to win: -205

Robertson by submission: -105

Robertson in round 2: +445

Jun Yong Park vs John Phillips

John Phillips was the fighter that much hyped Khamzat Chimaev defeated in his UFC debut.

Prediction:

Jun Yong Park by decision

Current Odds:

Jun Yong Park to win: -295

Jun Yong Park by decision: +225

Fares Ziam vs Jamie Mullarkey

Both fighters are 0-1 in the UFC, looking to earn their first victory tonight.

Prediction:

Mullarkey by decision

Current Odds:

Mullarkey to win: -145

Mullarkey by decision: +150

Fight Pass Prelims (4 PM Eastern)

Gadzhimurad Antigulov vs Maxim Grishin

Grishin is making his UFC debut tonight. He is an excellent talent coming out of the 2018 and 2019 tournaments of the PFL, with a record of 4-2-2 in PFL.

Prediction:

Grishin by KO/TKO in round 2

Current Odds:

Grishin to win: -375

Grishin by KO/TKO: -175

Grishin in round 2: +480

Said Nurmagomedov vs Mark Striegl

Prediction:

Nurmagomedov by decision

Current Odds:

Nurmagomedov to win: -350

Nurmagomedov by decision: -140